Foreign direct investment and the volume of trade: the case of Poland

In this paper we study empirically the relationship between the volume of trade and foreign direct investment in Poland using the FDI augmented gravity equation derived from the modified Chamberlin–Heckscher–Ohlin model with multinational firms and complete specialization in production. We find that FDI contributes positively to the development of international trade between Poland and OECD countries, although the complete specialization C–H–O model with multinational firms does not find support in the data. In contrast, it seems that incomplete specialization H–O model better explains Poland’s trade with the OECD countries. The lack of support for the complete specialization model suggests that the vertical model of the multinational firm may not be appropriate for explaining trade and FDI patterns between Poland and the OECD countries. Therefore, other than labor cost reduction motives might explain the expansion of multinational firms’ activity in Poland. In the light of provided empirical evidence the fears of relocation of labor intensive assembly plants from the west to the east may not be fully justified.