Designing real terrorism futures |
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Authors: | Robin D Hanson |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Economics, George Mason University, MSN 1D3 Carow Hall, Fairfax, VA, 22030, USA
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Abstract: | In July 2003, the Policy Analysis Market (PAM) was described as terrorism futures, and immediately cancelled. While PAM was not in fact designed to be terrorism futures, I here consider five design issues with implementing and using real terrorism futures: combinatorics, manipulation, moral hazard, hiding prices, and decision selection bias. As neither these nor other problems seem insurmountable, terrorism futures appears to be a technically realistic possibility. |
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