农村流动人口与城市社会安全：理论命题和政策建议

中国的乡村居民向都市地区的大规模跨区迁移,已经成为 20世纪 80年代以来中国社会中最引人瞩目的结构性社会变迁力量。在这一力量所引发的诸多社会后果之中,一个普遍的担忧,就是农村流动人口大规模迁入城市,极有可能导致城市社会治安状况的恶化。本文针对这一人口学动态对城市社会安全的可能影响程度和影响机制,提炼出一些有研究潜力的自变量组,进行理论命题的阐述,并解释这些命题背后潜在的政策含义。

Rural Migrants and Urban Public Security: Theoretical Statements and Policy Suggestion

The large-scale cross-region migration of China's rural residents to urban area has been one of the most outstanding structural social change forces in Chinese society since 1980s. Among all the possible social outcomes that this force has brought about, there exists one general suspicion, that is, the flowing of large number of rural migrants into urban areas may lead to the deterioration of the public security situation of the host cities. This article is aiming to explore the possible social impacts of this demographic trend, and their working mechanisms. By using the form of a system of theoretical hypotheses, the author identifies a serial of critical independent variables that might contribute to the study, and at the same time, tries to indicate the potential policy implications behind those theoretical statements.