The Death of Freddie Gray and Its Impact on Homicides in Baltimore and Maryland

This study evaluated the impact that Freddie Gray’s death on April, 19, 2015, had on homicides within Baltimore, Prince George’s County, and the rest of Maryland. The numbers of these deaths were compared in the 2 years prior and after his death. The average number of homicide per month in Baltimore and Prince George’s County, but not the rest of Maryland, showed a statistically significant increase in the 2 years after his death, with a sudden spike in homicides in Baltimore immediately following his death. Spatial density (“heat”) maps of homicides showed an increase in clustering of deaths after Freddie Gray’s demise in portions of Baltimore, particularly near his arrest site. Hot spot maps showed a massive expansion of statistically significant clusters of homicides in areas of West and East Baltimore after his death. An emerging hot spot analysis revealed consecutive hot spots in large areas of West Baltimore with new hot spots prominent along the southern edge of this area. A review of the history of Baltimore, as well as discussions with Baltimore homicide detectives, revealed that prior socioeconomic and political trends likely primed Baltimore for the protests and violence that occurred after Freddie Gray’s death. It is probable that a perceived “overcharging” of officers involved in his death by the State’s Attorney resulted in a “pullback” from policing that directly led to increased homicides in Baltimore.