THE FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGY OF THE VICTORIAN COALITION GOVERNMENT

Abstract: This article reviews the budget sector financial management strategy of the Victorian Coalition government in the crucial period from its election in October 1992 up to the 1993–94 budget. The twin goals set by the Coalition were the elimination of the current account deficit, and the reduction of debt levels. Given infrastructure pressures, the debt reduction goal will be a difficult one to achieve. More precisely, it will be a difficult one to achieve without relying upon instruments such as assets sales, which the Coalition has viewed as artificial debt reduction techniques. The capital expenditure plans embodied in the 1993–94 state budget were not consistent with the debt reduction plans specified only months earlier by the Coalition. Victoria's debt levels are quite moderate even by OECD standards. What makes debt levels a real issue for the state is the narrowness of the tax bases of the Australian states, and the fact that Victoria is taxing at something like its maximum levels (at least, without coordinated multi-state tax increases). It is argued that, if the states could be confident that their revenue positions would hold firm (concretely, that revenue and grants as a proportion of GSP would remain constant), the appropriate debt policy goal for Victoria would be stabilisation — rather than reduction — of its debt/GSP ratio. However, the foreshadowed trend reduction of real commonwealth grants, as part of the so-called national savings campaign, makes it appropriate for Victoria — given the circumstances in which it finds itself — to target the reduction of debt/GSP levels.