Causal Complexity and the Study of Politics

Theories that posit complex causation, or multiple causal paths,pervade the study of politics but have yet to find accuratestatistical expression. To remedy this situation I derive neweconometric procedures, Boolean probit and logit, based on thelogic of complexity. The solution provides an answer to a puzzlein the rational deterrence literature: the divergence betweentheory and case-study findings, on the one hand, and the findingsof quantitative studies, on the other, on the issue of the roleof capabilities and willingness in the initiation of disputes.It also makes the case that different methodological traditions,rather than settling into "separate but equal" status, can insteadinform and enrich one another.