基于马尔可夫转移概率的外来常住人口居住需求预测

住房供需矛盾的根本问题在于住房需求规模和需求结构如何。本文分析了外来常住人口的居住现状与居留意愿二者联动下对外来常住人口居住需求的影响,并利用灰色模型和马尔可夫(Morkov)转移概率的组合法对大城市外来常住人口的居住需求规模进行预测。通过Logistic模型分析发现,大城市外来常住人口的居住现状质量与居住需求成反比,居留意愿与居住需求成正比,通过灰色模型和Morkov转移概率矩阵方法预测得出一线城市外来常住人口的居住需求呈现上升趋势,2017年到2022年期间,总居住需求从1241万上升到1352万平方米,其中其他住房、政府提供住房和自购住房的居住需求逐年上升,租住私房的居住需求逐年下降。租住私房的居住需求最大,占比60%左右。外来务工人员的总居住需求下降,青年人员和引进人才的总居住需求上升,对比2017年四大城市外来常住人口的住宅供给与居住需求,得出目前四大城市的居住供给已超过居住需求。

Forecast of Residential Demand of Foreign Permanent Residents Based on Markov Transfer Probability Estimate

The fundamental problem of the contradictio n between housing supply and demand lies in the scale and structure of housing demand. This paper analyses the influence of residential status and residential willingness of the foreign permanent population on the residential demand of the foreign permanent population, and then uses the combination method of grey model and Markov transfer probability to forecast the residential demand scale of the foreign permanent population in the metropolis.Through the Logistic model analysis, it is found that the quality of residential status of the migrant permanent population in big cities is inversely proportional to the residential demand, and the residential willingness is proportional to the residential demand. The grey model and Morkov transfer probability matrix method are used to predict that the residential demand of the migrant permanent population in the first-tier cities shows an upward trend.From 2017 to 2022, the total residential demand increased from 12.41 million to 13.52 million square meters. The residential demand of other housing, government-provided housing and self-purchased housing increased year by year, while the residential demand of renting private housing decreased year by year. The demand for private housing is the largest, accounting for about60%.The total residential demand of migrant workers has declined, while the total residential demand of young people and talents has risen. Compared with the residential supply and demand of permanent residents in four major cities in 2017, it is concluded that the residential supply of the four major cities has exceeded the residential demand.