衡量消费需求合理化的指标体系研究

消费需求是否合理是研究消费问题的基础。要从消费率、消费增长率、平均消费倾向和边际消费倾向以及货币的实际购买力等方面,综合衡量一个国家或地区消费需求是否合理,而不能用某一个孤立的指标来衡量。判断消费率是否合适,一是与世界其他国家比较,二是与经典模型进行比较,三是要与本国的经验数据进行比较。合理的消费增长率,一要高于经济增长率,二要高于投资和出口增长率,三要考虑上一个时期消费基数或人均消费基数。消费倾向或边际消费倾向既不是越高越好,也不是越低越好。美国存在的边际消费倾向递减规律失灵现象,我国城乡居民中存在的储蓄偏好和惜消费现象,都要视具体情况作具体分析。

Study on Indicator System Measuring Rationalization of Consumer Demand

Whether consumer demand is rational is the basis for any study on consumption issues.The rationalization level of consumer demand in a certain country or region should be comprehensively measured from various perspectives,such as consumption rate,consumption growth,average propensity to consume,marginal propensity to consume,and the real purchasing power of currency,rather than using an isolated indicator system to measure.To determine whether the consumption rate is appropriate,we should first compare the situation with other countries in the world;secondly,we should compare with the classic model;thirdly,we should compare with the domestic empirical data.The reasonable consumption growth should be higher than the rate of economic growth,higher than investment and export growth rate,and should be considered in conjunction with the consumer base or per capita consumption base of the previous period.Propensity to consume or marginal propensity to consume is neither desirable as it moves higher nor as in the opposite direction.The law of diminishing marginal propensity to consume in the United States showed cases of failure,while Chinese urban and rural residents display savings preferences and consumer in a thrift manner.These are phenomena that require case-specific analysis.