台湾选民的政党认同——基于2004、2008、2012年三次“总统”选举的分析

经过2004年到2012年三次“总统”选举，台湾选民的政党认同逐渐结构化。新党、亲民党的认同者迅速下滑，“台联党”亦然，国民党认同的比例上升，民进党认同的比例则保持稳定，“中间选民”的比例逐步下降。在国民党和民进党认同者中，持强烈认同的比例不断上升，较弱认同的比例不断下降。从蓝绿两大政党看，年龄和受教育程度已非影响政党认同的显著因素，国家（族群）认同以及统“独”立场始终是影响政党认同的最重要因素，阶级地位具有显著影响，但是其影响力远不及国家（族群）认同以及统“独”立场。

Party Identification of Taiwan Voters Based on the Presidential Elections of 2004-2012

The party identification of Taiwan voters has structuralized gradually in the three presidential elections of 2004- 2012. The identification of the New Party, the People First Party and the Taiwan Solidarity Union is declining rapidly while KMT identity is on the rise. At the same time the DPP identity remains steady whereas the median voters are on the decline. In the voters of the KMT identity and the DPP identity,the proportion of strong identification rises while that of the weak identification declines. From the two major political parties ,age and educational level are not the significant factors to party identification. National （ethnic） identity and the attitude of unification and independence are always the most important factors. Class status exerts a significant impact but not as much as that of national （ethnic） identity and the attitude of unification and independence.