Gründe für wechselndes Wahlverhalten: Helfen neue Instrumente Licht in das Dunkel zu bringen?

Attempts to analyze the reasons for vote switching between consecutive elections have been in general quite disappointing. On the one hand, this result may be attributed to idiosyncrasies of vote switching; on the other hand, it may be a product of not fully adequate research strategies. This paper explores the second possibility. First, we suggest to study switchers not as a whole, but to distinguish different groups of switchers according to the political relevance of the different kinds of switching. Secondly, we discuss whether the analysis of switching could benefit from the use of panel data instead of cross-sectional data: the operationalization of switching by panel data should be superior to the widely used recall method. The hypotheses derived in the theoretical discussion receive strong support from empirical evidence from the German general election of 1998: both the differentiated measurement of switchers and the use of panel data enhance analysis of switching based on cleavage theory and the Michigan model. More generally, we conclude that our understanding of this dynamic element in electoral politics depends on the methodological adequacy of research.