对当前中东变局的几点认识

以突尼斯“茉莉花革命”开端的中东变局,具有鲜明的互联网时代特征,正在进一步蔓延之中,或将发展成为第二次世界大战以来中东的第三次浪潮。经济欠发展与社会问题突出是变局的主要动力,西方大国的干预使局势更加复杂多变,伊斯兰教势力并非运动的主力,但在下一阶段可能乘势崛起并“劫持普世民主”,地区经济、政治秩序与地缘政治格局或将发生重要变化。美国外交中理想主义与现实主义相互交织,相互矛盾,美国根据形势的发展“适时”“适当”地推进中东“民主化”的动力依然强劲。当前的中东变局,还可以放到地中海文明视野下进行审视。

Some Views on the Current Chaotic Situation in the Middle East

The Jessamine Revolution in Tunisia has started the overall chaos in the Middle East,which is characterized by a clear democratic appeal and an internet era,and may develop into a third wave of change since the Second World War.Economic underdevelopment and serious social issues served as the basic force of such a chaos,which is further complicated by the Western intervention.The current chaos in the Middle East may also be viewed from the perspective of the Mediterranean civilization.