World energy demand and world security

Global oil production is expected to reach a peak before the year 1990. Abundant coal supplies in the United States appear to be something of a mixed blessing, due to the increasingly well-recognized social and environmental problems from mining and burning coal. Nuclear power turns out to be more expensive than it appeared a decade ago, in part because of the formidable safety and environmental hazards posed. Given that supplies of energy are very unevenly distributed across the globe, if energy prices continue to rise over the next decade the potential for violent international conflict is very real. It should therefore be useful to review what is known about world energy supply and demand, and to consider some implications for energy research and development in the United States and abroad. I shall suggest that for various reasons solar energy may look even more attractive in global perspective than it does from a more narrowly United States-centered view. Its successful exploitation on a world scale nevertheless requires careful attention to foreign countries' goals and constraints.This article stems from a presentation to the Mapping Group on Energy and the Social Sciences at the Institution for Social and Policy Studies, Yale University. I am much indebted to the German Marshall Fund for financial support, and to Peter Allison, Thomas Biersteker, Stanley Black, Leonard Doob, William Freudenberg, Leroy Gould, John Hendricks, Guy Orcutt, William Reifsnyder, Brian Skinner, Jan Stolwijk, and Charles Walker for comments and suggestions. Responsibility is of course my own.