影响中东国家转型的内在因素

突尼斯事件之后,中东国家爆发了一系列的示威和冲突,民众要求进行政治、经济等全方位的改革,从而形成了新一轮民主化浪潮。然而,在原有矛盾尚未解决的情况下,新矛盾的产生加剧了中东国家的动荡。要平息目前的混乱状态,实现中东国家的转型是一个重要途径。但是,中东国家的转型是一个复杂的工程,单靠民主化无法完成,因为这涉及到人口、就业、经济、宗教等多方面因素。本文认为,即使建立了西方标准的民主体制,若上述问题得不到妥善解决,中东国家也无法实现真正的转型,新的动乱还有可能爆发。

The Internal Factors that Affect the Transition in theMiddle East

To make a transition is an important way to quench the current turmoil in theMiddle East. But transition is a complicated and difficult task for the countries in the region, which democratization alone can not accomplish. Ever if democracy that meets the Western standards is established, the countries in the region can not make a true transition and new turmoil may occur unless a number of issues are properly resolved.