Lead isotope measurement of primer gunshot residues and likelihood ratio predictions for forensic cartridge discrimination and individualization in China

Gunshot residues (GSR), cartridge projectiles, and casings are frequently encountered evidence in gun-related forensic investigations. However, in circumstances where the investigation of striation marks is impossible, such as unrecovered or deformed projectiles and cartridge casings, GSR deposited on the hands or clothes of the shooter and victim-related items can provide information to establish a link between the suspect, the firearms used, and the victim. Since the formula of primers used by all cartridge manufacturers in China is identical, links based on the conventional morphological and compositional analysis of GSR are difficult to establish. However, the abundance of lead isotopes in primer components of lead styphnate varies significantly, and a fundamental understanding of these differences may facilitate the validation of primer (p)GSR evidence in forensic investigations. Here, 44 pGSR samples were characterized by Pb isotope ratios of ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb using laser ablation multicollector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. There was no obvious mass fractionation of the lead isotope ratios of the primers from individual cartridges analyzed before and after the shooting process, thereby establishing a basis for the comparison of pGSR and unfired cartridges. Evaluation of the results using univariate likelihood ratio (LR) computations revealed low rates of misleading evidence (<0.53%) The results demonstrated that lead isotope ratio analysis of pGSR and LR predictions can provide a practicable method for forensic cartridge discrimination and individualization.