An analysis of the relationship between probation caseloads and property crime rates in California counties

Each year more offenders are sentenced to probation than to any other sanction in the criminal justice system. In spite of the saliency of probation programs, the evidence is mixed concerning their effectiveness. In order to address this important gap in the research, the authors sought to determine if probation was effective in achieving one of its stated goals: protecting public safety. In doing so, they conducted a macro-level analysis, exploring the relationship between probation caseloads and property crime rates in each county in California over a nine-year period. Results from a two-way fixed effects regression model suggested that as probation loads increased, so did crime. While additional research into the effectiveness of probation is clearly needed, the results of the analysis nevertheless indicated that improvements in public safety could be expected if probation caseloads were reduced.