Probation absconders: A unique risk group?

While examination of probation violations is common in the literature, probationers who abscond from community supervision have rarely been examined. These violators are circumventing justice and may pose a serious risk to public safety. This article compares the characteristics of absconders to those of offenders who successfully completed probation and offenders revoked from probation because of other violations. Absconders and revoked probationers generally presented the least favorable risk profiles, but did not differ significantly from one another on probation conditions, “stakes in conformity,” or prior felonies—although revoked probationers had more misdemeanors and a younger age of onset for officially recorded crime. Combined with the violation behaviors of absconders while on probation, these similarities suggest a strong chance of being revoked to prison had absconders remained under supervision. Employment, recorded address changes, and lower supervision burden on offenders were among the best predictors of successfully completing probation versus absconding.