动态均衡视角下的政策变迁规律研究

公共政策在其动态运行过程中,政策变迁是一个自然的过程环节。所谓政策变迁是指不同政策间的替代与转换过程①。这一过程是否遵循某种一般性规律,理论界对此一直缺乏必要的研究探讨。从动态均衡的视角看来,可以将政策变迁过程分为政策失衡、政策创新、政策均衡3个阶段。其中,政策失衡指的是愿意改变既定政策的政策参与者的集合力量,超过愿意维持既定政策的政策参与者的力量集合时的一种状态;而政策均衡则表示与之相反的一种状态。政策创新是指由旧政策到新政策的实质性转换过程。通过这3个环节,拟揭示出政策变迁过程中政策从原有均衡状态演变为失衡状态,再通过创新变革向新的均衡状态转变这一规律。

Study on Laws of Policy Change from the View of Dynamic Equilibrium

Policy change is a natural process in the dynamic operation of public policies. The concept of policy change refers to the replacement of existing policies by other policies. From the view of dynamic equilibrium, this paper concludes that policy change can be divided into three stages of policy un-equilibrium, policy innovation and policy equilibrium. When the power of policy participants who plan to change existing policies is stronger than that of those who are unwilling to change, the policies are liable to unequilibrium. On the contrary, the policies maintain the state of equilibrium. Policy innovation refers to the process of policy replacement. To be summary, the three stages constitute the dynamic process of policy change and the discovery helps to reveal the laws of policy change.