Money laundering in a two-sector model: using theory for measurement |
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| Authors: | Amedeo Argentiero Michele Bagella Francesco Busato |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Economics, University of Rome ``Tor Vergata’’, Rome, Italy;(2) Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses (I.S.A.E), Rome, Italy;(3) Dipartimento di Studi Economici, University of Naples Parthenope, Via Medina, 40, 80133 Naples, Italy;(4) School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Aarhus C, Denmark |
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| Abstract: | This paper implements a methodology that exploits firms and households’ optimality conditions to measure money laundering
for the Italian economy. This approach, first implemented by Ingram et al. (J Monet Econ 40:435–436, 1997) to the household
production sector, and by Busato et al. (Using theory for measurement: an analysis of the behaviour of underground economy
working paper, Aarhus University, 2006) for measuring the underground economy, allows to generate high frequency time-series
for money laundering using a theoretical two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated over the sample 1981:01–2001:04.
The analysis of the generated series suggests two main results. First, money laundering accounts for approximately 12 percent
of aggregate GDP; second, money laundering is more volatile than aggregate GDP and it is negatively correlated with it.
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| Keywords: | Money laundering Two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model Illegal economy |
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