Integration without Reunification

The United States, the third actor in what is still too often perceived as a bilateral and 'internal' dispute, will likely continue to prevent the direst of scenarios from taking place in cross-Strait relations: Taiwan independence, Taiwan's forced absorption by China, or even war. This outside constraint as well as the rapid development of multiple relations across the Strait hopefully will narrow the options available to Beijing and Taipei in the future. Nevertheless, while economic integration and cultural affinities may ease the development of a form of political integration, a formal unification that would solve the sovereignty issue and result in the dissolution of the Republic of China seems unlikely, even after the People's Republic of China democratises. More likely, a particular formula recognising that Taiwan is part of China but not 'mainland China' may be worked out by the two governments when Beijing eventually finds it to be both an interest and politically acceptable to formalise the 'integration without reunification' situation.