颠覆型民主化:菲律宾民主转型的力学博弈及依靠力量

通过"二月政变"率先实现颠覆型民主化,是菲律宾政治和社会长期发展的产物.在转型的博弈过程中,菲律宾未能形成体制内改革派集团,体制和反体制势力间的势力平衡急速地倾向于后者,在野党缺乏动员大众并使政府让步的能力.军队的反叛和教会的介入是民主转型最重要的依靠力量,这使得菲律宾颠覆型民主化的实现成为可能.

Subversive Democratization: A Mechanics-gambling Analysis of Philippine's Democratic Transition and Its Dependent Forces

As one of the outcomes of "the Coup D'etat of February" ,the Philippine's subversive democratization is obviously the product of the state's political and social development.During the transitional process,since innovationist group has not taken into shape within state system,the power balance between the system and the counter-system was broken and shifted towards the latter force;meanwhile,out-parties were weak and incapable of independently mobilizing the masses to force the government to concede.Therefore,the Philippines has to depend on army's rebellion and church's intervention to make it possible the subversive democratization.