Turnout and weather disruptions: Survey evidence from the 2012 presidential elections in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy |
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| Affiliation: | 1. University of California, Santa Barbara, United States;2. Columbia University, United States;1. National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan;2. Harvard University, United States;1. Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA;2. John F Kennedy School of Government, Cambridge, MA, USA;3. UNICEF, New York, NY, USA;4. UNICEF, Islamabad, Pakistan;5. UNICEF, Abuja, Nigeria;6. Ministry of Health, Pakistan;7. SSRS, Media, PA, USA;8. InterMedia, Washington, DC, USA;9. Oxford Research International, Oxford, UK;1. University of Bologna and CESifo, Italy;2. University of Bologna, Italy;3. University of Bologna, CHILD-CCA and IZA, Italy;1. Precision Health Economics, United States;2. Department of Economics, University of Michigan, United States;3. Department of Economics, UCLA, United States;1. University of Messina, Department of Economics, Piazza Pugliatti 1, 98122 Messina, Italy;2. Birkbeck College, University of London, Department of Economics, Mathematics and Statistics, Malet Street, WC1E 7HX London, UK;3. University of Calabria, Department of Economics, Statistics and Finance, Ponte Pietro Bucci, 87036 Arcavacata di Rende CS, Italy;1. Department of Political Science, Faculty of Arts, Comenius University Bratislava, Gondova 2, 81499 Bratislava, Slovakia;2. Department of Political Science, Faculty of Social Studies, Masaryk University in Brno, Joštova 10, 602 00 Brno, Czechia |
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| Abstract: | This paper examines the rational choice reasoning that is used to explain the correlation between low voter turnout and the disruptions caused by weather related phenomena in the United States. Using in-person as well as phone survey data collected in New York City where the damage and disruption caused by Hurricane Sandy varied by district and even by city blocks, we explore, more directly than one can with aggregate data, whether individuals who were more affected by the disruptions caused by Hurricane Sandy were more or less likely to vote in the 2012 Presidential Election that took place while voters still struggled with the devastation of the hurricane and unusually low temperatures. Contrary to the findings of other scholars who use aggregate data to examine similar questions, we find that there is no difference in the likelihood to vote between citizens who experienced greater discomfort and those who experienced no discomfort even in non-competitive districts. We theorize that this is in part due to the resilience to costs and higher levels of political engagement that vulnerable groups develop under certain institutional conditions. |
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| Keywords: | Turnout Weather Voting behavior Local institutions United States Presidential elections |
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