DETERRENCE EFFECTIVENESS MEASUREMENT

Abstract The controversy of statistical evaluation of effectiveness of the present criminal justice system and of specific programs or changes implemented in the existing system has in part centered around the value of crime-incidence data. The relationships between victimization and UCR or police-blotter data pertinent to their use in evaluation are first described. An example is presented using an empirical-stochastic model developed solely from UCR data to illustrate an approach to evaluation of system effectiveness. Here an ad hoc procedure is displayed which quantifies variation in and/or shifts in crime patterns after an intervention in the system.