Effect of emergency winter homeless shelters on property crime

Objective

To evaluate the effect of emergency winter homeless shelters on property crimes in the nearby communities.

Methods

Every winter between 2009 and 2016, the City of Vancouver, Canada opened shelters to protect the homeless from harsh winter conditions. The city opened 19 shelters, but only five to nine of them were open in any one winter. Using the variation in timing and placement of the shelters, we contrast crime rates in the surrounding areas when the shelters are open and closed.

Results

The presence of a shelter appears to cause property crime to increase by 56% within 100 m of that shelter, with thefts from vehicles, other thefts, and vandalism driving the increase. However, when a homeless shelter opened, rates of breaking and entering commercial establishments were 34% lower within 100 m of that shelter. The observed effects are concentrated close to shelters, within 400 m, and dissipate beyond 400 m. Consistent with a causal effect, we find a decreasing effect of shelters with increasing distance from the shelter.

Conclusions

While homeless shelters are a critical social service, in Vancouver, they appear to impact property crime in the surrounding community. Shelters may warrant greater security to control property crime, but the data suggest that any increase in security need not extend beyond 400 m, about two to three blocks, from the shelters.