| Abstract: | Data from four successive yearly cohorts and one special early release cohort of parolees are used to explore the question of whether rapid statewide changes in the administration of criminal justice affected the patterns of recidivism among persons on parole for property offenses. Given the earlier broadly constructed research reported by Ekland–Olson et al. (1993), and their conclusion that variation in shifting policies would have different effects on different types of offenses, we decided to sharpen the focus of the research questions posed by concentrating on recidivism patterns among property offenders. Three alternative explanations—compositional effects, administrative discretion, and deterrence—are explored to interpret the differences found across cohorts While suggestive, these alternative explanations remain open to question given the limitations inherent in quasi-experimental research. Conclusions related to issues of prison construction policy suggest that more attention be paid to the “replacement factor,” whereby “vacancies” left by incarcerated offenders are rapidly filled by others. If future research supports the rapid replacement hypothesis, increased levels of incarceration will yield a larger, more experienced criminal “work force” and ironically a heightened collective potential for crime. |
