Smaller State Perspectives on the Future of Space Governance

Current debates over impending developments in military and civilian uses of space raise deeper questions of how the expanding human presence in space over the next century might unfold. Appreciating the full range of challenges and opportunities posed by this uncertain future requires exploring all scenarios and perspectives comprehensively. As a contribution to such analysis, this article draws insights from the outlooks of smaller states toward national and global space priorities. The first two sections summarize and contrast United States and Canadian policy trajectories and dispositions in their respective space programs. The third section assesses how differences in smaller state perspectives can contribute to developing an analytically rigorous concept of space power. The fourth section then examines how juxtaposing alternative scenarios for the long-term development of human space presence, consistent with power-based theory, offers a stronger foundation for explaining and assessing current conditions than does making limiting assumptions of inevitable future trajectories. The article concludes that more inclusive analysis of serious future possibilities also enables more complete assessment of current space security challenges.