What drives democratisation in Asia and Africa?

Abstract.   With many developing countries stuck in an uneasy middle ground between full-fledged democracy and outright dictatorship, the question of favourable and unfavourable conditions for democratisation is dramatically brought back into focus. Yet, systematic comparative analysis that analyses a range of favourable and unfavourable political, economic and cultural factors is rare, particularly as far as African and Asian countries are concerned. This article addresses these shortcomings and at the same time introduces two conceptual innovations. Building on a structural and socio-anthropological conception of the term, we measure and test culture cross-nationally in a way that overcomes the conceptual limitations of the 'political culture' approach. We further develop an index of power sharing for 62 African and Asian countries, allowing us statistically to test Arend Lijphart's 'consociational' model of democratic emergence and consolidation. In our statistical examination of these countries between 1965 and 1995, power sharing and the cultural element of low familism turn out to be the strongest predictors of democratisation, while economic factors – often viewed as the most important variables shaping democratisation – have only limited effects.