安全预期、经济收益与东亚安全秩序

冷战后,东亚地区不仅没有进入一个充满紧张和冲突的时期,反而维持了相对长时间的和平状态。有关东亚安全秩序的既有解释主要强调的是体系结构或过程,但不足以解释东亚安全秩序内部的动力和机制,以及这种秩序蕴含的内在不稳定性的主要原因。本文提出了一种功能论的解释,认为美国和中国分别为东亚地区提供了安全预期和经济收益两项最为重要的公共产品,是维系当前东亚安全秩序的基础。然而,在中国崛起和美国重返东亚带来的冲击下,这两种地区性公共产品的供给脱节和供给矛盾使既有东亚安全秩序面临内在的不稳定性。为了应对这种不确定性,达到稳定周边环境和缓解崛起疑虑的效果,中国在为本地区提供稳定的经济收益的同时也需要在政治和军事方面采取积极的安全保障措施,营造东亚安全秩序的新基础。

Security Expectations,Economic Benefits and East Asian Security

After the Cold War,instead of stumbling into a period of tensions and conflict,East Asia entered a period of extended peace.Attempts to explain the East Asian security framework have emphasized its structural or procedural components,but fall short in terms of explaining unstable elements inherent to it and internal motivating factors and institutions within the framework.This article proposes a functional explanation for East Asian security,arguing that America and China respectively provide the region with two important public goods:security expectations and economic benefits.It is these goods which are the foundation of the present security order in East Asia.With China’s rise and America’s "return" to East Asia,new frictions have emerged in the region caused by changing modes of provision of regional public goods and conflicts over the provision of such goods.This has generated instabilities within the region’s security framework.As a means of responding to these uncertainties,while continuing to provide the region with economic benefits conducive to stability,China also needs undertake political and military initiatives that can provide positive security guarantees.This will establish a new foundation for regional security,ensure stability in the region,and ease concerns related to China’s rise.