Expectations for the 1982 mid-term U.S. congressional elections: An historical perspective

The record of U.S. mid-term elections since the mid-1940s is examined. The author explores the relationship of their results to those in the preceding Presidential year. Differential turnout does not seem to affect the outcome. Presidential popularity matters less than expected. But change in disposable income goes far to explain the scale of the electoral changes recorded. Party loyalty matters less for chances of re-election than mere incumbency. In 1982 reapportionment will help the Republicans but President Reagan's unpopularity will hurt them.