2009～2010年中国-东盟货物贸易数量分析与预测——中国-东盟区域贸易数量分析年度报告之七

2009年中国-东盟贸易出现了1999年以来的首次负增长,但在第四季度双方贸易开始复苏,特别是最后两个月均出现了30％以上的增速。按国别看,本年中国与文莱及除柬埔寨之外的3个东盟新成员国的贸易增幅为正,其中,中越贸易增势突出,2009年越南超过菲律宾成为中国的第20大贸易伙伴,而中国与其余东盟6国的贸易都比2008年下滑。用Eviews检验分析显示,中、关、日、韩与东盟的贸易具有协整关系,相互关联。结合定性分析与数学模型,预测2010年的中国－东盟经贸合作将保持较高的增长势头。

Quantitative Analysis on Goods Trade of China-ASEAN in 2009 and Its Predict in 2010

The growth rate of trade in goods between China and ASEAN turned negative the first time in 2009 since 1999,but recovered to positive in the fourth quarter.Especially in the last two months witnessed an over 30% growth speed.In terms of countries,the growth rate of bilateral trade between China and Brunei and three new member countries of ASEAN was positive except for Cambodia,of which the Sino-Vietnam trade kept on increasing fast.Vietnam became the 20th largest trade partner of China,exceeding Philippine,...