| What is the magnitude of the subpopulation effect? |
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| 引用本文： | Curran JM,Buckleton JS,Triggs CM. What is the magnitude of the subpopulation effect?[J]. Forensic science international, 2003, 135(1): 1-8. DOI: 10.1016/S0379-0738(03)00171-3 |
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| 作者姓名： | Curran JM Buckleton JS Triggs CM |
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| 摘 要： |
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| 收稿时间： | 2001-11-28 |
What is the magnitude of the subpopulation effect? |
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| Curran James M,Buckleton John S,Triggs Christopher M. What is the magnitude of the subpopulation effect?[J]. Forensic science international, 2003, 135(1): 1-8. DOI: 10.1016/S0379-0738(03)00171-3 |
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| Authors: | Curran James M Buckleton John S Triggs Christopher M |
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| Affiliation: | Department of Statistics, University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand. curran@stat.waikato.ac.nz |
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| Abstract: | The effect of population subdivision on estimated match probabilities has been raised [Nature 339 (1989) 501; Am. J. Hum. Genet. 48 (1991) 819; Science 254 (1991) 1921]. Previous work [J. Forensic Sci. 39 (1994) 319; J. Forensic Sci. 39 (1994) 988; Am. J. Hum. Genet. 55 (1994) 533] has compared product rule estimates from differing databases and found that the "subpopulation" error may be of the order of a factor of 10. This approach compares an estimate with an estimate. This paper uses simulation to extend these studies by allowing a comparison to a 'true match probability' and supports the conclusion that subpopulation effects are mild. In addition the performance of recommendations 4.1 and 4.2 of NRC II [National Research Council and C.O.D.F. Science, The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence, National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1996]. |
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