房地产泡沫：理论分析与长三角实证检验

房地产泡沫是一种与人的心理预期有关的价格现象,对房地产泡沫的测度应综合考虑经济基本面和心理预期因素.以上海、南京和杭州为样本,对1999-2007年长三角的房地产价格泡沫程度和发展趋势进行实证分析,发现2002年之前长三角房地产价格泡沫在5%以内,属于合理范围;从2003年起房地产泡沫开始加速膨胀,2006年达到顶点,2007年有所回调.应当密切注意其房地产价格波动,并进行正确的引导,这对房地产市场的建康发展至关重要.

Real Estate Bubble:A Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Verification in the Yangtze River Delta

The measurements of the real estate bubble,the phenomenon related to people's expectation of the price,should be based on an integrated consideration of such factors as the fundamentals of the economy and people's price mentality.When the degree and trend of the real estate bubble in the Yangtze River Delta from 1999 to 2007 were analyzed empirically through sampling the three major cities of Shanghai,Nanjing and Hangzhou in this region,it has been found that the bubble was below the rational scope of 5% be...