转型时期的农民工住房问题——一种政策过程的视角

从政策过程的视角论述农民工住房问题纳入国家政策层面的可行性，可为解决农民工住房问题提供政策方向。本文从杜布林冲突的系统分析模型出发，建构“黑匣子”公共政策过程分析模型，并运用成本-收益分析、政府分权理论等，从政策执行的角度来检验政策方案。通过政策输入过程分析，识别形成农民工住房问题的实质因素，并分析农民工住房问题转变为政策问题的实践约束条件。通过对政策执行约束条件的分析得出：农民工住房政策的逻辑起点不是农民工住房质量，而是附加在户籍制上的城乡二元体制结构。研究认为农民工住房问题本身无法作为良好的政策问题纳入中央政府决策范围。建立农民工住房保障体系并允许农民工有条件地享受城市住房保障政策，或直接取消城乡二元结构，都不是解决农民工住房问题的最优政策，但前者作为渐进的决策途径，还是有助于缓解社会转型矛盾的；政府应当制定改革户籍制的长远目标，并在此框架下坚持改革和创新，逐步实现住房保障的城乡一体化。

The Housing Problem of Rural Migrant Workers in China During the Period of Institutional Transition: The Perspective of a Policy Process Analysis

This paper aims at providing a policy direction to solve the rural migrant workers' housing problem, through discussing the feasibility of inputting rural migrant workers' housing problem into the national policy level from a policy process perspective. Based on the Deublin conflict model, this paper builds a "black-box" public policy process analysis model. and tries to test the policy alternatives by cost-benefit analysis and government decentralization theory from the perspective of policy implementation. The main task of policy input process is to identify the substance which leads to the rural migrant workers' housing problem and analyze the policy constraints from the problem to policy issue. Through the analysis of the constraints in implementation process, this paper explores that the logical starting-point of the rural migrant workers' housing problem is not the house quality but the urban-rural dual institutional structure attached to the hOU8ehold registration system. It finds out that the rural migrant workers' housing problem cannot be input into the central government's decision-making range as a good policy issue. Both the housing security system for rural migrant workers and reformation of urban-rural dual structure are not the best solution to the rural migrant workers' housing problem, but as a progressive decision-making the former can help to alleviate the social conflicts; the government should formulate a long-term goal of the reform of the household registration system, persist in innovation, and finally incrementally realize the urban-rural integration of housing security.