Legacies and Leverage: EU Political Conditionality and Democracy Promotion in Historical Perspective

Previous studies have established strong and robust effects of EU political conditionality on democracy in the neighbouring countries. We test these effects against the claim that historical legacies condition the likelihood of successful democratisation—and possibly the EU's political conditionality as well. Based on a panel study of 36 countries of the Eastern and Mediterranean neighbourhood of the EU between 1988 and 2004, we show that cultural legacies of religious civilisation are indeed conducive to or inhibit democratisation, and reduce the effects of political conditionality, but they do not explain away the EU's role in promoting democratic consolidation.