Predictors of success and failure on intensive probation supervision

Using official data collected from probation records, this article identifies predictors of success and failure in the Super Intensive Probation Program in Harris County (Houston), Texas. The records of 307 participants were analyzed using logistic regression analysis. The attempt was to identify predictors of committing technical violations and new crimes. These two categories were combined to identify predictors of success/failure in general. The strongest predictors of failure were unemployment and number of prior misdemeanor convictions. The performances of SIPP participants was compared with that of a sample of regular probationers. Though the failure rates of the two programs was comparable, none of the variables which correlated with success/failure in SIPP were significantly associated with performance on regular probation. Theoretical and policy-related implications of the findings are discussed.