俄罗斯经济的转折点与“俄罗斯病”

俄罗斯经济一度在油价的暴涨中实现了高增长,但在2008年油价暴跌之后,俄面临着经济增长的转折点。虽说俄罗斯的经济转型伴随着一系列的市场经济结构改革,但还是对于油价变动反应过度。俄受油价变动摆布的资源依赖型经济可统称为"俄罗斯病"。这其实是一种"石油诅咒"综合症,但它不同于"荷兰病"。虽然俄罗斯历经石油价格高涨→实际汇率升值→进口扩大的发展路径,却没有出现GDP增长递减和制造业增长低迷的现象。因为俄国内市场大于荷兰,而且制造业发展缓慢。我们不能期待出现治愈"俄罗斯病"的特效药和特需,而有效利用资源利益来推动其经济发展是俄罗斯的现实选择。俄罗斯以"推翻世界史"的速度实现了开放的市场经济,但是,在重构文化背景和制造业基础之后再来发展经济恐怕还需时日。

Turning Point of Russian Economy and "Russian Disease"

Russian economy once achieved high growth with skyrocketing oil prices. However, after the sharp drop in oil prices in 2008, Russia has faced a turning point in its economic growth. Although Russian economic transition has been accompanied by a series of market economy structural reforms, still it has overreacted to changes in oil prices. Russian resource-dependent economy at the mercy of changes in oil prices can be generally referred to as "Russian disease". In fact, this is a kind of "oil curse" syndrome, but it is different from "Dutch disease". Though Russia has experienced a development path as: rising oil prices → appreciation of real exchange rates →expanded imports, still there has not appeared a phenomenon of diminishing GDP growth and downturn in manufacturing growth. Russian domestic market is larger than that of the Netherlands and its manufacturing industry also develops slowly. We can not expect to have specific remedies for "Russian disease" while making effective use of resources to promote its economic development would be Russia’s realistic choice. Russia has achieved an open market economy at the speed of "overthrowing the history of the world", however, it still takes time to develop economy after reconstruction of cultural background and manufacturing base.