地区治安危机感知模糊评价与预测

地区民众与警察在不同程度上都具有一个对治安状态的危机感知,这种意识的作用往往大于对统计数据的依赖。文章跳出传统犯罪统计与数据分析的研究框架,运用感知调查量表和模糊综合评价方法,对地区治安危机感知进行了分析与评价。首先建立了治安危机感知概念,并且确定了地区犯罪率和违法率的感知等级,然后,通过对某地区的感知问卷调查,得出了治安危机感知度,根据感知等级度与犯罪率与违法率对应数据区间的分析,得出了该地区治安危机感知的评价结果和预测结果。

Fuzzy Evaluation and Prediction of Regional Public Order Crisis Perception

Both the regional populace and the police have the crisis perception to the public order situations of public security to some extent.The function of this perception is often greater than the dependence to the statistical data.Breaking through the research framework of traditional crime statistics and data analyses,this article conducts an analysis and evaluation to regional public order crisis perception by perception questionnaires and fuzzy synthetic evaluation method.Firstly,the concept of crisis perception is established and the perception grade of crime rate and violation rate is determined.Secondly,public order crisis perception degree can be obtained through the perception questionnaire survey in some region.Finally,according to the analysis of corresponding data intervals between perception degree and crime rate,violation rate,the results of evaluation and prediction to the regional public order crisis perception can be obtained.