欧债危机对拉美经济的影响:现状及展望

2011年以来,欧洲主权债务危机不断深化,其未来发展存在重大不确定性。新兴经济体受到明显冲击,其经济增长速度明显下滑。随着欧债危机的深化,拉美经济的宏观稳定和金融稳定风险不断累积。拉美经济体面临着政策持续与政策退出、政策刺激与衍生风险、经济增长与金融稳定等目标之间的两难抉择。债务问题还将持续冲击金融市场,拉美经济体的主要金融市场中短期内将保持震荡甚至是下行格局,国际资本流动更加紊乱。未来欧债危机对拉美经济体的影响将体现为:全球经济可能二次探底,部分拉美经济体可能硬着陆,需警惕滞胀风险;全球总需求仍不足,拉美经济体出口将进一步放缓;国际资本流动可能逆转,拉美经济体金融风险需谨慎。

European Sovereign Debt Crisis and Its Impact on Latin America

Since 2011 the European debt crisis has continued to ferment and the uncertainty is increasingly mounting,which has inflicted remarkable impacts on emerging economies and slowed down their economic growth rate.Against the background,Latin America is undergoing the stage of accumulation of macroeconomic and financial risks.Regional economies are facing a variety of difficult options: continue to follow ongoing stimulus policies or stop to implement them;boost economic growth by providing policy impetus or giving priority to resolving derivative risks;sustain economic growth or maintain financial stability.It can be expected that the debt problem would impose a continuous impact on international finance market and exacerbate the disorder of international capital movement.As a result of the risk of a double dip of world economy,some Latin American countries might undergo a hard landing and possibly fall into stagflation.Because of inadequate global demand,the exporting sector in the region will witness a slower growth in 2012.In addition the financial and sovereign risks deserve much attention due to short-term capital flow reverse resulted by the crisis.