欧债危机对拉美经济的影响机制与拉美的政策措施及成效

在当前经济制度背景下,欧债危机主要通过贸易、投资和金融等机制影响拉美经济:欧盟需求不足可能使拉美国家的出口收益减少;欧盟信贷额度下降、股市波动、资本流动性减少,会减少对拉美国家的投资,导致拉美国家投资不足和金融市场不稳,对拉美国家的产业结构调整也会产生消极影响。面对危机,拉美国家的应对策略并非临时的或短期的政策,而是从长期应对危机的历史中汲取了经验和教训。拉美国家实行稳健的宏观经济政策和灵活的浮动汇率政策,通胀处于可控水平,银行监管适当,整体债务水平较低,加上较为充足的外汇储备和经济运行状况总体良好等因素,为拉美国家抵御欧债危机的冲击发挥了相当大的减缓作用。但是,欧债危机对拉美经济可能会存在长期效应。中国与拉美的贸易为拉美经济的发展提供了动力,但中拉关系中还存在很多不稳定因素。未来中拉之间的战略依存度将越来越高,经贸往来也将更加密切。

European Sovereign Debt Crisis and Countermeasures in Latin America

The European debt crisis is imposing impacts on Latin America through a variety of channels including trade,investment and finance.The market demand in Europe is shrinking,which would be a major blow to the export in Latin America.The region is suffering from credit crunch,stock market fluctuations and the drop of capital mobility.Those impacts are imposing challenges to Latin America that might confront inadequate investment and financial instability and the ongoing industrial restructuring in the region would probably suffer a setback.While deteriorating conditions in Europe have not yet spilled over to Latin America,regional countries are taking precaution measures against those potential risks.Currently the region as a whole is in a favorable position by maintaining the stability of macro economy and a remarkable economic growth in recent years.It is especially noticeable that it has rather low debt level,which is regarded as a major factor enhancing the region’s resilience to the crisis.Sustained efforts to reduce inflation have met with considerable success.The banking sector is still liquid and solvent.Most regional countries have adopted an inflexible exchange rate system.In addition,large reserve of foreign exchange grants them fiscal room to adjust economic policies.Although Latin America has weathered the crisis pretty well,this does not imply that it will remain to be immune to it,which means that regional countries need to stay on high alert to prevent the crisis from spreading into the region.