联盟形成理论:评估及对中国的政策启示

本文对联盟形成理论进行了全面回顾与评析,认为在过去几十年中,联盟形成理论主要有两大发展,一是在研究"为什么形成联盟"这个问题上,存在从势力均衡理论到威胁均衡理论再到利益均衡理论的理论演进;二是上述三个理论各自内部的理论深化。按照拉卡托斯的理论演进判断标准以及"奥卡姆剃刀"(Occam’srazor)原则,文章对有关理论演进进行了评估,认为从势力均衡理论到威胁均衡理论的发展相对成功。然后,本文提出如何从联盟形成理论及其演进历程中寻求启发,以建构一个简约的联盟解体理论。最后,讨论了联盟形成理论对中国当前对外政策的启示。

Theories of Alliance Formation:A Review and Considerations for Chinese Policy

This article offers a comprehensive review and analysis of theories of alliance formation,arguing that over the past several decades two major theoretical developments have been advanced:first,research on "why alliances form"has progressed from balance of power theories to balance of threat theories to balance of interest theories;second,is that there has been much theoretical innovation within each of the above categories of theories.According Lakatos’standards for assessing theoretical development and the principle of Occam’s razor,this article reviews each of these theories and argues that the theoretical progression from balance of power to balance of threats theories has been relatively successful.The article goes on to apply the theory of alliance building and its historical development to construct a simple theory of the collapse of alliances.Finally the article considers implications of the theory of alliance formation for contemporary Chinese foreign policy.