The more the better? Cumulative issue ownership and intra-campaign party switching |
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Institution: | 1. University of Kent, Canterbury, United Kingdom;2. Kings College London, London, United Kingdom;1. University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands;2. University of Twente, the Netherlands;1. University of Zurich, NCCR Democracy; Affolternstrasse 56, CH-8050 Zurich, Switzerland;2. Département de science politique et relations internationales, Faculté des sciences économiques et sociales, Université de Genève, 40 Bd du Pont d''Arve, 1211 Genève 4, Switzerland |
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Abstract: | We contribute to the literature on short term changes in voters' party preferences (or intra-campaign party switching), by advancing a factor that has been neglected so far: Voters' perceptions about parties' issue competence. We develop a model of party switching that includes both classic predictors and issue ownership considerations. Moreover, in contrast to the usual single issue ownership conception focusing on the party deemed most competent to solve the most important problem, we argue that voters base their party choice on their perceptions of parties' competence on a variety of issues, i.e. on cumulative issue ownership. We test our model on panel data from the 2015 Swiss election study. The change in competence perceptions appears as a strong predictor of party switching: The higher the increase in the number of issues on which voters see a party as most competent during the campaign, the higher their likelihood to switch to that party. |
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Keywords: | Party switching Electoral volatility Cumulative issue ownership Campaign dynamics |
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