Economic aspirations, well-being and political support in recession and boom periods: the case of West Germany

Abstract. Usually the aggregate over-time relationship between economics and politics is empirically reduced to a simple one equation regression model which specifies political support as the dependent, and several economic indicators as independent variables. Here more comprehensive causal model is tested for West Germany. Economic aspirations, personal well-being, fear of the direct effects of economic crisis and political demands are introduced as intervening causal structures between the state of the economy and political support. It is demonstrated that the strength of the relationship between the economy and political support is quite different in recession and boom periods, depending on the subjective importance of economic concerns and the degree of fear of losing one's job. As the analysis of four different economic periods reveals, the effects of inflation and unemployment on political support are strongest when these indicators have an upward tendency. If they are stationary at a low or a higher level, their influences disappear.