Bloodstain pattern analysis & Bayes: A case report |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Netherlands Forensic Institute, Division of Biological Traces, Laan van Ypenburg 6, 2497 GB The Hague, The Netherlands;2. Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Technology, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;1. Centre for Forensic Science, University of Technology Sydney, Australia;2. School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia;3. Centre for the Forensic Sciences, Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London, UK;1. Centre of Forensic Sciences, 25 Morton Shulman Avenue, Toronto, Ontario M3M 0B1, Canada;2. Centre of Forensic Science, Royal College Building, University of Strathclyde, 204 George Street, Glasgow, Scotland G1 1XW, United Kingdom;1. Centre for Forensic Science, Department of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Health & Life Sciences, Northumbria University, Ellison Building, NE1 8ST Newcastle Upon Tyne, United Kingdom;2. Northumbria Sport, Northumbria University, NE1 8ST Newcastle Upon Tyne, United Kingdom;3. King’s Forensics, Department of Analytical, Environmental & Forensic Sciences, King’s College London, SE1 9NH London, United Kingdom |
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| Abstract: | The findings from a bloodstain pattern analysis (BPA) may assist in formulating or falsifying scenarios that are considered in the investigative stages of a criminal investigation. When a case proceeds to trial the bloodstain pattern expert may be asked about the relevance of their findings given scenarios that are proposed by the prosecution and defense counsel. Such opinions provided by an expert are highly relevant to police investigation or legal proceedings, but the reasoning behind the opinion or implicit assumptions made by the expert may not be transparent.A proper framework for the evaluation of forensic findings has been developed since the late twentieth century, based on the hierarchy of propositions, Bayesian reasoning and a model for case assessment and interpretation. This framework, when implemented in casework, mitigates some of the risks of cognitive biases, and makes the reasoning and scientific basis for the opinion transparent. This framework is broadly used across forensic science disciplines. In this paper we describe its application to the field of BPA using a case example from the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI). |
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| Keywords: | Propositions Activity level Weight of evidence Criminalistics Bloodstain pattern analysis DNA RNA Bayesian framework Evidence evaluation |
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