To survive is all: How the authoritarian core tackles neighboring dictatorships

This article attempts to answer why autocrats of illiberal regional powers intervene in the politics of neighboring dictatorships and argues that the dictator always prioritizes his survival and thus intervenes if he perceives his survival to be under direct threat. The formal model proposes three factors that determine the level of perceived threat: demographic composition, structural similarity, and regime dynamic of autocratic countries. The authoritarian core must pay close attention to those neighboring autocratic countries that are suffering from regime change, are close to its own densely populated region, and have regime types or social structure similar to itself. Additionally, if hostile ethnic or religious groups are highly concentrated in some areas of the authoritarian core where it borders autocracies experiencing regime instability, the authoritarian core will be motivated to intervene in the domestic affairs of those neighboring countries. Using QCA and case studies, this article confirmed that whether an authoritarian core will take action against countries in geographical proximity depends on a combination of these three factors.