Felony probation: A re-examination of public risk

The California Rand study focused major attention on the potential threat that felons on probation presented to the public. Their findings of a 65% rearrest rate during a 40-month follow-up of 1672 felons raised considerable concern but left one key question unanswered: are those disturbing results unique to California or are they representative of a nationwide crisis generated by the critical prison overcrowding problem? The authors of the present study replicated the Rand report for the State of Missouri in an attempt to answer those questions. A total of 2083 felons from the most urban population of Missouri were tracked for the same 40-month period utilized by Rand, with very different results. The Missouri rearrest rates were found to be a respectable 22%. The obvious conclusion is that felony probation is an effective alternate to prison in Missouri, and the Rand study may not be representative of felony probation in general.