大选后的岸田文雄内阁:执政基础与政策取向

日本岸田文雄内阁的诞生,是执政的自民党为应对大选而"临阵换帅"的结果。执政联盟利用广大选民对新内阁的"政策期待",加之国内疫情趋缓、在野党势力孱弱以及选举对策缜密,从而赢得了大选。大选后岸田内阁的执政基础虽暂且趋稳,但在权力交接、路线调整及国政选举等层面上仍面临诸多严峻挑战,其政治稳定性不容乐观,实现长期执政的难度较大。随着岸田内阁施政渐次展开,其在防控疫情、强化日美同盟与推进印太战略上将保持较强的政策延续性,而在经济增长方式与国家安全保障上将实施政策调整。岸田内阁提出构筑"建设性且稳定的中日关系"并奉行现实主义对华外交方针,但其对外政策取向仍将保持涉华指向明显的惯性,经济安全保障、"人权外交"等政策主张或将加大中日关系摩擦几率。

The Fumio Kishida Cabinet after Election:Governing Basis and Policy Orientation

The birth of the Fumio Kishida Cabinet in Japan is the result of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s(LDP)“last-minute change of leadership”before the general election.The ruling coalition took advantage of voters’“policy expectations”for the new cabinet,as well as the subsiding of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country,the weakness of the opposition parties,and careful campaign strategies to win the general election.Although the ruling basis of Kishida’s cabinet has stabilized for the time being after the general election,it still faces many severe challenges in power transfer,policy adjustment and national elections.As a result,its political stability is not optimistic and it has great difficulties to achieve long-term governance.The Fumio Kishida Cabinet has proposed to build“constructive and stable China-Japan relations”and pursue a realistic foreign policy toward China,but its foreign policy orientation will keep the obvious inertia of targeting at China,and its policies such as ensuring economic security and“human rights diplomacy”may increase the chances of friction in China-Japan relations.