我国经济案件数量近年意外下降的原因考察

基于全国、省市以及基层的数据,有四种可能的解释——纠纷解决的结构变化、经济发展、社会转型和法院的运作不良。以上四个假说各有一定的道理,但没有一个能够为这个令人意外的下降给出简单、直观和充分的解释。由于纠纷解决的结构变化基本上无法言之成理,下降的原因要么在于社会中纠纷总量的下降,要么在于潜在的诉讼当事人将纠纷带到法院进行诉讼的意愿降低。经济发展和社会转型的假说对解释案件数量的上升有一定的解释力。而社会转型特别是法院的运转不良更会导致解释案件数量的下降。在一定的程度上,中国新近出现的情况可能对传统上认为已经解决的案件数量变化与社会经济条件之间的关系形成新的挑战。

The Unexpected Decrease of Economic Cases in China

Based upon the data collected from the national,provincial and local agencies,this paper observes the four suppositions intending to explain the decrease of economic cases in China:change of the dispute-settlement framework,development of economy,transformation of society and malfunction of courts.Though each of these seems to be of some reason,none is explicit,direct and sufficient enough to be convincing.If we ascertain that the dispute-settlement structure has nearly nothing to do with the decrease,the reason must lie either in the decrease of the volume of disputes or in the unwillingness of the potential litigants to bring their actions to the court.While econ- omy development and society transformation can only explain the heaviness of the caseload,society transformation and especially malfunction of courts may give reason to the decrease of the cases.In some degree,traditional ideas that determine a change of caseloads are facing challenges in the newly emerged in China.