Election night forecasting in New Zealand |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Government, University of Essex, UK;2. School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas, USA;1. University of Manchester, UK;2. University of Southampton, UK;3. Simon Fraser University, Canada;4. University of Texas at Austin, USA;1. University of Iowa, United States;2. Centre for Citizenship and Democracy, University of Leuven, Belgium |
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| Abstract: | After an unsatisfactory 1981 attempt at a computerized prediction system on election night, Television New Zealand went into the snap 1984 election with an untried new procedure. The promise of that system has borne fruit in the 1987 election. This article describes the statistical methodology of the system and some of the results obtained on election night 1987. The procedure is based on biased sampling techniques and ratio estimation, and utilizes vote counts from selected indicator booths (key precincts) as its input. Accurate predictions for individual electorates are available thirty to forty minutes after the close of polls, and a nationwide prediction becomes available about fifteen minutes later. |
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