中国与东盟稻米贸易的动态与展望

近几年来,中国与东盟之间的稻米贸易发展迅猛,不断增长的趋势明显,但双方稻米贸易的不稳定性与不平衡性也显得尤为突出。本文从实证分析的角度出发,在探讨双方稻米贸易总体趋势的基础上利用出口集中度指数、显性比较优势指数、贸易互补性指数对其动态与前景进行分析。研究发现,双方稻米贸易具有市场地位极不对等、比较优势差异较大、贸易互补性较强等特征。本文对中国与东盟稻米贸易的前景进行展望。

China-ASEAN Rice Trade: Dynamic and Prospects

In recent years, the rice trade between China and ASEAN developed rapidly, and the growing trend was obvious, but the instability and imbalance of trade is particularly prominent. Based on the discussion about the overall trends in rice trade, the paper uses the tools of trade intensity index （TII）, revealed comparative advantage index （RCA）, trade complementarity index （TCI） in order to systematically analyze the trade dynamic and prospects. The study shows that the rice trade between China and ASEAN has some features as following： the market position is very imbalanced, the comparative advantage has obvious differences and the complementarity of trade is strong. Finally, this article makes a reasonable outlook on the prospects of rice trade.