The welfare of the elderly: A systems analysis viewpoint

A methodology is offered to analyze for policy purposes the services offered to the elderly. Best policy is defined as that policy which maximizes the benefit to the elderly, given budgetary and other constraints. To measure the benefit to the elderly, a scale is devised, consisting of a set of states describing the degree of dependency of the elderly. This ordinal scale is converted to a cardinal scale by assigning weights to the states, these weights being an expression of the social-value judgments of the administrators. The change in weights over time, induced by the intervention of services, is the benefit of the services. Mathematical techniques are described for relating benefit to cost, modeling the flow of elderly among institutions, making a sensitivity analysis, and deriving the best policy.