中国地方财政稳定机制研究

传统财政理论认为,中央政府是稳定政策唯一合适的承担者,然而,Gramlich得出地方政府的财政政策至少在短期内是有效的结论,并提倡地方政府实施稳定的财政政策。本文利用1995—2008年中国30个省、市、自治区(西藏除外)的财政收支面板数据和GDP面板数据,运用固定效应模型和Prais-Winsten PCSE方法实证分析了地方财政收支行为与宏观经济波动的关系,得出在宏观经济处于繁荣阶段时,地方财政收支违反了"逆周期"操作规则,是"顺周期"的结论。认为,地方政府职能转变不到位,财政纪律松弛,财政约束缺失,以及《预算法》的缺陷是导致"顺周期"的原因。为此,本文最后提出了通过建立地方财政预算稳定基金和中期预算制度,修订预算法等相关措施来构建中国地方财政稳定机制的设想。

Research on the Mechanism of Local Fiscal Stabilization in China

The traditional fiscal theory regards that the central government should adopt fiscal policies for stability. However, Gramlich concluded that sub-national fiscal policies can exert at least short-term influence, and advocated a fiscal policy for stability in local governments. Using panel data of local fiscal revenue, expenditure, and GDP in China’s 30 provinces’ (XiZang excluded) from 1995 to 2008, this article utilizes the fixed-effect model and Prais-Winsten PCSE (Correlated Panels Corrected Standard Errors) model, and then makes an empirical analysis about the stabilization effects of local fiscal behavior on macro economy. Empirical results show that when economy is in upturns the local fiscal revenue and expenditure behaviors is not "countercyclical business", but "procyclical business", which leads to increasing macroeconomic volatility. Moreover, this article provides evidence that local government functions are not in place, and the relaxation of fiscal discipline, the lack of fiscal constraints and the deficiency of "Budget Law" result in local fiscal behavior procyclical. So, this article recommends building local budget stabilization funds and medium-term budget system, and revising the "Budget Law" and other measures, so as to stabilize macro-economy.